WIRTSCHAFT, Börsen News

 

Dax könnte unter 10.000 Punkte sinkenimage

Nachbörslich hatte der Dax am Freitag die 10.000-Punkte-Marke schon unterschritten. Nun fürchten Händler, dass die Kurse auch im regulären Handel am Montag noch einmal abtauchen könnten. Wie sie diese Sorge begründen.

Nach einer turbulenten Handelswoche an der Börse dürften Zahlen rund um die Weltkonjunktur auch in der neuen Woche die Entwicklung der Aktienmärkte prägen. Der deutsche Aktienindex Dax hatte am Freitag nachbörslich (beim sogenannten „F-Dax“, berechnet aus dem Future auf den Index) erstmals seit langem kurzzeitig wieder die Marke von 10.000 Punkten unterschritten. Zuvor hatte das Börsenbarometer mit einem Minus von fast 8 Prozent den größten Wochenverlust seit vier Jahren verzeichnet und war mit 10.125 Punkten ins Wochenende gegangen.

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In dieser Börsenwoche stehen kaum noch Quartalszahlen von Unternehmen auf dem Terminplan, der Blick der Investoren dürfte sich deshalb vor allem auf Konjunkturdaten aus China, aber auch aus Amerika und Europa richten. Die Anleger treibt die Angst um, dass die chinesische Wirtschaft kräftig an Fahrt verlieren könnte, mit Auswirkungen auf die gesamte Weltwirtschaft. Hinzu kommt die Ungewissheit, ob die Zinswende in den Vereinigten Staaten kurz bevorsteht oder noch länger auf sich warten lässt.

Unter Börsenhändlern wurde zumindest nicht ausgeschlossen, dass der Dax auch im regulären Handel in dieser Woche unter 10.000 Punkte sinken könnte. „Der Trend spricht im Augenblick für einen weiteren Fall der Kurse“, meinte auch Carsten Brzeski, der Chefvolkswirt der ING-Diba. Reinhard Pfingsten, der Chief Investment Officer des Frankfurter Bankhauses Hauck & Aufhäuser, sagte am Sonntag, die Entwicklung im nachbörslichen Handel lege es nahe, dass der Dax jetzt unter 10.000 Punkte fallen könnte. „Ein kurzfristiges Abtauchen unter die 10.000 ist eher wahrscheinlich“, sagte Pfingsten. „Die zentrale Frage ist, ob wir, ausgehend von China, global in eine Rezession laufen – dies scheint der Markt ja derzeit einzupreisen.“ Er halte die Wahrscheinlichkeit aber für gering, insofern sollten Anleger „mit einer gewissen Nüchternheit durch die Phase gehen“. Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) beruhigte ebenfalls, man solle die Dramatik der Lage in China nicht überbewerten.
An der Börse dürften Anleger auf die Vorgaben der asiatischen Märkte sowie Konjunkturdaten aus Europa und den Vereinigten Staaten sensibel reagieren, dafür gibt es in dieser Börsenwoche ausreichend Gelegenheit. Am Dienstag veröffentlicht das Münchener Ifo-Institut seinen Geschäftsklimaindex für August und damit den wohl prominentesten Stimmungsindikator für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft.

Ebenfalls am Dienstag werden Daten für das Verbrauchervertrauen in Amerika für August veröffentlicht. Am Mittwoch dürften die amerikanischen Auftragseingänge langlebiger Güter für Juli in den Mittelpunkt rücken, da die Marktteilnehmer versuchen werden, einen Hinweis auf den Zeitpunkt der Zinswende herauszulesen.

World Farmers Organisation: Blueberries most dynamic commodity

With a global growth of 9%, blueberries doubled the increase recorded in 2012 and tripled that of the fruit industry in general.
In 2013 the top five markets that led the growth of this commodity were Australia, Russia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Venezuela. The United States, the largest market in the world for blueberries, remained stable due to saturation and only Italy reduced its market quota, though marginally.

 

European Court Experts, Advisory Board

European Court Experts, Advisory Board

The price has been the biggest obstacle to the growth of the demand for blueberries. However, due to the constant increase in supply in recent years, it is expected that prices will slowly decrease.

Euromonitor estimates that the volume of blueberries are expected to increase by 40 % by 2018, reaching over one million tons. The markets where there should be substantial increases in the levels of consumption in the coming years are Singapore, Philippines, Norway, Sweden and Malaysia.

In Europe, sales volumes remain low, although countries like Spain, France and Italy are among the largest producers in the world. In Latin America, Brazil is an underdeveloped market for bluberries due to the large number of other fruits that are produced and marketed in the country.

Retail Investing: Short Term Concerns for Long Term Options Investing

imageRecently I presented the OICs (Options Industry Council) newest options seminar, Options Fundamentals. Options Fundamentals is part one OICs new three part series developed with retail investors in mind. This three part series is presented over three months with each section being presented one month after the previous section. Next month will be Trading and Understanding Risk and the last in the series is Option Trade Management.

Options Fundamentals covers the components of an option contract, the rights of option holders and the obligations of short option positions as well as some basic strategies such as buying calls and buying puts. I’ve been teaching options for the OIC for over 10 years now and have been in the options business since 1982. I’ve spent my career on the retail side of the business talking to and learning from Account Executives, Financial Advisors and Registered Reps for firms across the country. I’ve never traded firm money or made markets on the floor, I’ve always dealt with investors and their Registered Rep. – a role that I’ve always found enlightening and rewarding.

As the years passed, I’ve noticed large numbers of individual investors taking greater responsibility for their investments and taking a more active role in their financial futures. Many are turning to options, they have found that options are very flexible and offer solutions to short term concerns that long term investors come across from time to time. Many times investors are concerned about earnings or a new product release. This concern is short term, the investor believes in the company and may have owned the stock for years, but they may be concerned about a short-term event like bad earnings or a delayed product release. The thought process begins:

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European Court Experts, Wall Street News

What if the stock drops? What if the stock really drops? Should I sell, should I tough it out?

Here is where the protective put helps. The protective put acts like an insurance policy by establishing a short term (may be long term if a LEAP is used) possible selling price for the stock should something potentially negative occur. Sure you pay a premium for the policy and if the nothing bad happens you will lose that premium, but if it does, that protection can help minimize any loss. It is really no different than car or home insurance in many ways. Every six months I pay Joes All Star Insurance for collision and theft coverage for 2 cars and so far I haven’t collected, but I sleep better at night. The protective put acts the same way. The protection is there if you need it, but you’re happy when you don’t.

Another option strategy employed by long-term investors is the covered-write. Many times investors buy stocks hoping for a rise in the price but don’t see the rise they were expecting. Again, they believe in the stock, but could use a little additional income (can’t we all!).

Here’s where the covered-write may help. The investor can sell a call. Now a short call is an obligation to sell stock at a certain price within a certain period of time, so this position limits upside potential. However, in exchange for giving up that upside potential the investor receives a premium. That premium is his to keep no matter what happens to the stock. If the stock does not rise above the price before the options expiration date, the option expires worthless and the investor keeps the premium. If the stock falls, the investor still keeps the premium. If the stock rises high enough, the investor will be obligated to sell his shares. There are actions the investor can take to avoid selling the stock, this falls into trade management.

Wall Street, New York

Wall Street, New York

Trade management you ask? Do you like to buy and hold? Set it and forget it? If you prefer to set it and forget it then options may not be for you. Options require time, effort and some maintenance. You must be aware of stock movements and option movements; you must understand what happens if the stock goes up or goes down and what happens as time passes – all of which impact your investment.

Not every option strategy works in every situation, but they work in some situations that may apply to your needs. The flexibility offered to both short term, and long term investors is not found in any other financial product.

Once again they do require time and effort, but it’s your money and your financial future, isn’t that worth it?

Used properly options can help control risk, generate income or speculate on stock movements. Remember, options involve risk and are not for everyone. Be sure to know and understand the risks and rewards of any option strategy before entering into that strategy.

3 Diversified ETFs to Watch in Q2 – ETF News And Commentary

Wall Street, New York City

Wall Street, New York City

The ETF industry saw lots of volatility in the first quarter of this year thanks to the start of the QE taper, polar vortex in North America, deepening slowdown in China, return of deflationary worries in Euro zone and the geo-political issue in Russia which had a ripple effect in other countries. All these have goaded the „risk-off“ investing theme in investors‘ minds last quarter and should be felt in the second quarter as well.

If these were not enough, investors should note that the months of April and May are normally seasonally downbeat for the U.S. stock markets. After a mid-month tax deadline, investing in April normally loses some steam. On a separate note, April denotes the last month of the six-month long seasonally bull phase of the stock markets.

To add to this, we have also witnessed some sort of sector rotation lately, with some high-flying sectors like technology being hard hit, and defensive sectors like utility gaining strength (read: 3 Utility ETFs Surviving the Market Turmoil ). Meanwhile, the Fed’s Chair hinted at hiking short-term interest rate in mid 2015, leaving an impact on the bond market.

Thanks to all these worries, one needs to be hawk-eyed while choosing ETFs for a portfolio in Q2. Thus, identifying some ETF winners would be a prudent idea to make an investment decision.

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European Court Experts, Market News

Here we focus on three funds with favorable Zacks ETF Ranks and moderate risk outlook that you can capitalize on in order to enrich your portfolio:

iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF ( IJJ )

While U.S. small caps had an astounding run last year, making the segment slightly overvalued, the large-cap segment is vulnerable to ongoing global shocks. Amid such a backdrop, investors should have a middle-of-the-road approach choosing mid-cap ETFs.

This often-ignored slice of capitalization offers the best of both worlds. Lesser vulnerability to international tremors compared to larger ones and lower risk profile than their small-cap counterparts make mid-cap ETFs a safe bet. The U.S. economy appears as one of the most stable and decently growing global regions this year.

Mid-cap ETFs should benefit from this improving U.S. economy. Also, investors should look for some value focus even in this slice of the market, given heightened global volatility. And to do this, IJJ could a good way to target the best of the segment.

The fund zeroes in on the S&P MidCap 400 Citigroup Value Index for exposure to about 292 domestic mid-cap names having diversified exposure to various sectors. The product is well spread out as it puts about 10.27% of its assets in the top 10 holdings with no stock accounting for more than 1.27% of the basket. Hollyfrontier (1.25%), SL Green Realty (1.20%) and Fidelity National (1.13%) occupy the top three positions.

imageHowever, the product is heavily dependent on financials, which make up for 29% of the total assets, while industrials, information technology and consumer discretionary round out the next three spots. IJJ is one of the most popular and liquid choices in the mid-cap value ETF list.

The fund has returned 3.60% year-to-date. It has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 (Buy) with low risk outlook.

DB Agriculture Long ETN ( AGF )

The year 2013 was not good for agricultural commodity investing thanks to easing supply concerns and favorable weather conditions which caused this fund to hurtle lower. However, the scenario has been turning around since the start of 2014 on supply crunch for some soft commodities and global recovery which led to enhanced consumption (read: 3 Commodity ETFs Surging on Russia Sanctions ).

While we currently have some top-ranked Zacks ETFs in the agricultural space including T eucrium Corn ETF ( CORN ) based on one of the most important U.S. crops, corn, and some sugar ETFs, we prefer to bet on all top-performing agricultural-based commodities through a single investment, AGF (Read: Zacks ETF Rank Guide ).

AGF delivers an array of various soft commodities such as corn, sugar, soybean, and wheat all of which have been exhibiting a favorable pricing trend currently. Corn and wheat are gaining on the Ukrainian issue and inclement weather in some major growing regions. Though, short-term in nature, we expect these price drivers to remain in place in the quarter ahead.

With AUM of only $3.5 million, the ETN is unpopular and less liquid in the agricultural commodities space. The product is expensive when compared to other choices in the segment. It charges investors 75 bps in fees per year and an extra cost in the form of wide bid/ask spread thanks to low daily trading.

The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold). AGF was up about 45% over the last one month against 3.5% gain in the broader and the largest agro ETF PowerShares DB Agricultural ETF ( DBA ).

iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF ( EFV )

Investors with significant exposure in the U.S. can use EFV for geographic diversification of their portfolio. With an asset base of $2.5 billion, EFV is among the largest ETFs in the foreign large cap equities space. The fund looks to offer exposure to the MSCI EAFE Value Index.

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Frankfurt Stock Exchange

The Index seeks to pick value-oriented securities having higher book value to price ratios, higher forward earnings to price ratios, higher dividend yields and lower long-term growth rate projections than securities that have a growth focus.

More than 65% of the holdings are invested in Europe with UK being the front runner accounting for a quarter of the portfolio. Japan (19%), France (11%) and Germany (10.59%) round out the next three positions (read: Is This a Better Europe ETF? ).

The ultra-low interest rates prevailing in these regions with no possibility of a rise in rates down the line, unlike the U.S., might compel some investors to look for dividend yields instead. And for that group of yield-hungry investors, EFV is one of the best suited options. EFV’s 30-day SEC yield stands at 3.99% (as of March 31, 2014).

The fund has low concentration risk from an individual securities perspective, as it puts only 19.45% of share in the top 10 holdings. HSBC Holdings Plc (2.89%), BP Plc (2.28%) and Total SA (2.14%) are the three top elements in the basket. The ETF focuses mostly on the financial sector with two-fifth of assets invested in it. The product charges investors 40 basis points a year in fees, which is lower than most comparable ETFs.
EFV presently carries a Zacks ETF Rank # 2 (Buy). The fund was up about 3% in the last week.

Wall Street News

Market Flash: Market Up
From The Trading Floor: Stocks are trading well into the green this morning, poised for a weekly gain ahead of some select index rebalancing and a quad witch expiration that is expected to be large

Wall Street Impressions presented by European Court Experts

Wall Street Impressions presented by European Court Experts

Fitch has raised the U.S.’s outlook to „stable“ while affirming the country’s AAA rating, citing the suspension of the debt limit last month and strong fiscal consolidation as reasons for the move.
29 of 30 Banks passed the most recent stress tests with Zions Bancorp falling a bit short
Nike’s FQ3 earnings beat consensus as the company enjoyed rising sales in China and Western Europe, while it also said orders have soared ahead of this summer’s soccer World Cup. Guidance has them trading down this morning.
The cost of implementing the Volcker Rule could vary from $413M to $4.3B for banks supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, an OCC study calculates, as the regulations force banks to sell restricted investments at a loss.
Today is a quad witch expiration day which is the simultaneous expiration of futures on stock indexes and individual stocks, and stock and stock index options. It is also a quarterly rebalance on some S&P and Nasdaq indexes
Russia’s Micex stock index was down this morning after the U.S. threatened sanctions against vital parts of the country’s economy, including the financial-services, energy and mining sectors. The U.S. also imposed asset freezes and visa bans on senior Russian officials and businessmen close to Vladimir Putin.
Italian industrial orders jumped 4.8% on month in January after sinking 4.8% in December, while industrial sales rose 1.2% vs -0.3%. The figures add to better-than-expected output in January and suggest that Italy’s fragile recovery may be taking hold.
Resistance today looks to be 1880 / 1883 with support at 1867 / 1870
Market Flash:Market Mixed / Positive
From The Trading Floor: Equities are trading mixed to positive this morning as the effects of Janet Yellen’s suggestion of a sooner-than-expected rate hike the prior session is measured against economic reports on employment and housing.

imageThe number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits last week increased by 5000 to 320,000
The Fed is due to release the results of its annual stress test on 30 banks today, with most expected to pass
Americans were most pessimistic on the outlook for the economy in March than at any time in the past 4 months
February home sales in the U.S. fell to a 4.60 million rate
The Index of Leading Indicators rose 0.5% in February, a sign the world’s largest economy will strengthen after the weather induced slowdown
Q2 Holdings priced 7.7 million shares at $13.00. The opening print was $16.25 on 1,584,231 shares.
Ukraine plans to pull its troops out of Crimea in what is effectively a de facto acceptance of Russia’s annexation of the province.
The State Council intends to accelerate construction projects and enact other measures to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth. The plan comes amid data which suggests that the economy is softening.
From a technical standpoint, resistance looks to be 1866 / 1869 with support at 1856 / 1859
Market Flash: Market Mixed
From The Trading Floor: Markets are trading in mixed territory this morning as traders are unwilling to make bets ahead of the FOMC rate decision and Janet Yellen’s first press conference at 2:00 today.

Mortgage Applications for the week ending March 14th fell -1.2%
Current account gap fell to $81.1 billion from 96.4 billion
The FOMC rate decision is at 2:00 today. With the Fed expected to taper some more and abandon its 6.5% unemployment threshold for considering rate hikes, punters are focusing on what would push the Fed to finally raise rates.
Japan’s trade deficit narrowed to ¥800.3B ($7.9B) in February from a record ¥2.79T in January but exceeded consensus of ¥590B. Import growth slowed to 9% from 25% while exports rose 9.9%. Japan has now experienced a record 20 consecutive trade deficits, and while the figure may have peaked, few economists expect the country to turn a surplus any time soon.
From a technical perspective, resistance is at the 1877 / 1880 level with support at 1863 / 1866

US Stock Market

European Court Experts News

European Court Experts News

Receding fears of further military action related to Russia’s annexation of Crimea helped benchmarks end in the green for the second straight day. The S&P 500 moved close to its record high following reports that Russia may not occupy other parts of Ukraine. The Nasdaq got a boost from the surge in technology stocks. Meanwhile, investors look forward to the conclusion of Federal Reserve’s two-day policy-setting meeting on Wednesday. Tuesday’s mixed economic data had little impact on the markets.

For a look at the issues currently facing the markets, make sure to read today’s Ahead of Wall Street article

European Court Experts, Real Estate

European Court Experts, Real Estate

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained 0.6% to close Tuesday’s trading session at 16,336.19. The Standard & Poor (S&P 500) rose 0.7% to finish at 1,872.25. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index went up 1.3% to 4,333.31. The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) plunged 7.2% to settle at 14.52. Total volume on the New York Stock Exchange was 2.9 billion shares. Declining stocks were outnumbered by advancing stocks on the NYSE. For 23% stocks that declined, 75% advanced.

U.S. stocks rallied for the second day in a row after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia didn’t want further partition of Ukraine. Last Sunday, the vote turned to be overwhelmingly in favor of citizens in Crimea wanting to be part of Russia.

On Tuesday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index got a boost from the Technology sector. Key technology stocks such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL ), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG ), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT ), Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ ) and International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM ) increased 0.9%, 1.6%, 3.9%, 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively.

Investors also focused on the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy-setting meeting that will conclude on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is expected to hold a press conference after the meeting. The Fed is expected to keep the key lending rates low and is also expected to taper its monthly asset purchase program.

On the economic front, mixed economic data didn’t have any significant impact on the markets. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics came out with consumer price data; wherein it reported Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) had improved just 0.1% in February. The increase was in line with the consensus estimate. The rise in food prices by 0.4% and the rise in housing costs by 0.2% were cited to be the reasons behind the slight rise in consumer prices.

ECE Experts, International

ECE Experts, International

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported a small drop in housing starts. According to the report, privately owned housing starts in February slipped 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 907,000. Consensus estimate was expecting housing starts to be at 913,000. However, single family housing starts advanced 0.3%.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development also reported that building permits gained 7.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,018,000. This was more than the consensus expectation of 960,000. Indication that construction work will increase once the weather warms up encouraged builders to file for permits to construct condominiums and rental apartment buildings.

Nine out of ten sectors of the S&P 500 ended in the green. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) surged 1.1%. Major stocks from the sector such as Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE ), Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK ), Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD ), Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN ) and Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB ) gained 1.6%, 0.2%, 3.1%, 2.9% and 1.8%, respectively.

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/stock-market-news-for-march-19-2014-market-news-cm336616#ixzz2wR1gKXgX